Two-line cash and debt check before the Fed's December meeting

You are watching the bank balance, not the macro tape. The question is whether parked cash is earning enough and whether variable-rate debt is still cheap enough to keep. That is the check.

The Federal Reserve's rate-setting panel raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% by a 12-0 vote on September 16, 2026. That was the first Federal Reserve rate increase since July 2023. The statement described inflation as elevated and said the hike would support a quicker return to the 2 percent goal.

The September hike changes the price of cash and debt

For a revenue-funded business, the useful question is what your balance sheet should do now. A company funded by its own sales has less room for surprise, because the next invoice arrives on schedule. That invoice does not wait for the macro story to settle. Profit is not cash, and the check keeps the two separate. The balance sheet is the scoreboard. A bootstrapped company's cash position is the runway that lets you keep serving customers without needing outside permission. The policy statement is a reminder that the cost of money is moving, and your operating cash is either earning it or paying it.

Most Fed officials expected one more hike before the end of 2026, and futures markets put about an 87 percent chance on at least one further move. The committee's updated projections show one more quarter-point move by December.

Of the 18 officials who filed projections, 16 wanted at least one more hike in 2026, and no one saw a cut this year. Twelve of the 18 officials who submitted rate-path forecasts put one more quarter-point increase on their 2026 path.

Those signals ask for a comparison. Cash sitting in a low-yield account while your credit line resets upward makes the company pay twice: once in foregone interest, and once in higher debt service.

Run the two-line check before the December meeting

Keep it to two lines because a longer model invites delay. Do it with the same spreadsheet you use for the weekly cash forecast. Put the cash balance in one cell, the yield in the next, and the debt balance in a third. The gaps should be visible without a model. See the gap before it becomes a burn decision. The check should be quick and repeatable.

• Cash line: compare the annual yield on your parked cash with the reserve-balance rate, then note the gap.
• Debt line: compare the current cost of every variable-rate line with the projected terminal rate, the year-end policy rate, then note the gap.

Parked cash has a price. A yield well below that rate is a small but real leak. You do not need to chase returns. You need to stop leaving cash on the table while the company carries debt.

Variable-rate debt can reset as the policy range moves. An expensive line asks whether paying it down now is cheaper than carrying it through another quarter. A cheap line asks whether the cash you would use to pay it down has a better use in the business.

Choose the action that protects the next quarter

After the two lines, choose one of three actions. Move cash into a higher-yield, low-risk account if the cash gap is meaningful. Pay down variable-rate debt if the debt gap is meaningful and the company can still cover payroll, taxes, and customer commitments. Hold a reserve if both gaps are small and the next quarter has known costs. Run the check this week. Slower growth is a deliberate choice when the cash line says so.

Make the decision boring enough to explain to your accountant, your co-founder, and your own bank balance. Keep it reversible if the next statement changes the setup.